Are there benefits or drawbacks to being a 'newsjunkie'? Tetlock (2015) found that geopolitical forecasters who consume more news about a projection they are making, and update their forecasts based on that news, are more accurate. More recently, Author (2019) developed and validated a measure assessing a newsjunkie characteristic: an intrinsic motivation to keep up with news about current events (an Intrinsic Need For Orientation, or INFO). The four-item index was reliable among nationally representative samples in multiple countries and multiple languages.
Need for orientation has been researched, though it was measured as either a product of strength of political party association and uncertainty about an upcoming election, or as an interest in getting news about a specific subject—not as a general, intrinsic desire to follow news—and the INFO scale addresses these shortcomings. Prior research positioned need for orientation in the context of second-level agenda setting. The INFO scale also returns need for orientation to the uses-and-gratifications framework.
Method
The current study examined whether Intrinsic Need For Orientation—'The motivation to routinely and frequently seek and consume news, for the positive emotions of feeling informed and to avoid negative emotions of feeling behind'— among a nationally representative sample of US respondents (N=2,017, data collected by The Harris Poll, December 2019), and used it to predict accuracy on five political/economic forecasting questions, while controlling for news consumption, need for cognition, and demographic factors.
INFO. Index of five-point agree/disagree items (alpha=.84): 1)'When I have down time, I check news or news headlines'; 2)'One of the first things I do each day is check the news'; 3)'I feel discomfort when I don't know what's going on in the world'; 4)'Keeping up with the news makes me feel more connected to other people.'
Forecasting questions. Respondents assigned a 0-to-100 probability to five future outcomes: a) The UK would leave the EU by Feb. 1, 2020; b) The San Francisco 49ers, or the New England Patriots, or the Baltimore Ravens, or some other team would win the Feb. 2, 2020 Super Bowl; c) The US and China would sign a trade agreement before March 1, 2020; d) US Democrats will nominate a woman for president; e) The US unemployment rate will reach or exceed 3.9% at any point prior to June 1, 2020.
Results and Discussion
The first three forecasting questions are answered. Results for the remaining questions—unemployment by June 1 and a female Democratic presidential nominee—have been calculated on the assumptions, respectively, that US unemployment remains below 3.9% and that a woman is not the Democratic nominee.
For three of the questions (Trade; Unemployment; Female nominee), INFO was negatively associated with accuracy, after controlling for news consumption, need for cognition, and demographic variables. Newsjunkies were worse forecasters than people with a weak INFO. Implications for research on INFO and on forecasting accuracy are discussed.
(Unemployment and nominee results will be amended prior to conference if outcomes differ)
References
Author (2019).
Tetlock, P.E., & Gardner, D. (2016). Superforecasting: The art and science of prediction. Random House.